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发现
- 去找1Consumer spending is responsive to stock market movements, led by spending bursts on credit cards.
- 去找2被认定为男性投资者的客户对股市走势的消费反应强于非投资者的男性和女性.
- 去找3流入投资账户的资金对股票市场的变化尤其敏感——股票上涨10%意味着男性和女性的资金转移规模在短期内增加10%以上——显示出一种追逐回报的模式.
- 去找4新冠疫情对经济的冲击, which strongly dampened consumer spending, resulted in a large spike in transfers to investment accounts, 尤其是对男人来说.
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2021年1月
For this 12bet官方 研究所 report, we analyze granular administrative retail bank data to explore the relationship between the U.S. stock market and consumer behavior, notably consumption and investment. 我们的研究提供了一个历史视角，可以帮助政策制定者了解市场波动如何在相对较短的时间内传导到实体经济. 这份报告记录了信用卡消费与股票回报之间的关系，这种关系在短短几个月内就会显现出来. This relationship appears to be driven disproportionately by specific types of activity—notably, temporary spending spikes on credit cards—and investor status or gender.
In addition to spending patterns, we examine retail flows to investment accounts. These transfers suggest "returns chasing" behavior; they track lagged stock market changes with an R-squared of over 20%. 总而言之, procyclical behavior can be seen on both spending and investment fronts, and the magnitudes vary across gender and wealth indicators. 具体地说, 在我们的例子中, credit card spending by men and investors was more responsive to stocks than that of women and non-investors. 关于投资流动, gender differences were smaller; the sensitivity of male investment flows to market returns was only modestly above the estimate for women. Our data cover much of the period following the Great Recession, from 2012 through mid-2020. 重要的是, we separate the COVID-crisis from the rest of the sample, to prevent outliers from this unique shock from driving the results. 这种观点可以帮助政策制定者理解商业周期中的动态是如何发挥作用的，并阐明与通过市场对周期进行短期“管理”相关的权衡. Since our sample is mainly limited to one economic expansion, 我们分别研究了COVID冲击期间个人的支出和投资流动是如何发挥作用的，以说明与前几年观察到的动态的异同. The analysis can be summarized in the following four findings:
找到一个: Consumer spending is responsive to stock market movements, led by spending bursts on credit cards.
在我们的信用卡样本中, a 10% rise in stock prices is associated with a rise in average spending of just under 1 percent. 效果稍小，为0.8%, at the center of the spending change distribution, 而该分布的右尾——其特征是消费增长是一个人稳态消费率的两倍或三倍——则大约是其敏感度的两倍. The time horizon for this relationship is relatively short, with the stock market leading by less than 4 months.在上述期间内, the relationship is not seen for spending via checking accounts or changes in individuals’ labor income, 这表明，消费者信贷可用性或家庭流动资产状况可能在调节股票与经济之间的关系方面发挥作用.
发现二: 被认定为男性投资者的客户对股市走势的消费反应强于非投资者的男性和女性.
跟随股市变化, the median of the distribution of spending by male investors shifts by about 10% more than fe男性non-investors, but this gap increases to about double at the 95th percentile. 男性投资者的高敏感性与股市-支出相关性的财富效应解释是一致的, although labor market differences between genders may also be at play. 我们估计的异质性意味着，股票市场和家庭之间的短期联系被狭窄细分市场的巨大变化放大了，而且不如总支出所显示的那样广泛. 像这样, the macro-financial relationship is subject to change with shifts in the structure of the economy, 包括不平等, 信用可获得性, 偏好的转变.
发现三: 流入投资账户的资金对股票市场的变化尤其敏感——股票上涨10%意味着男性和女性的资金转移规模在短期内增加10%以上——显示出一种追逐回报的模式.
These sensitivities are much larger than those observed for spending, as are the correlations. The number of people transferring net funds to their investment accounts also increases with stock market gains, suggesting an element of herding behavior among retail investors. 在我们的数据, the relationship is asymmetric; stock market gains predict stronger flows to investment accounts, but stock market losses have little average effect.
影响
我们的研究结果表明，寻求通过股市对商业周期施加控制的政策可能在短期内取得成功. 然而, stock market gains are associated with spending “splurges” on credit cards and flows into investment brokerage accounts, 这表明，旨在支撑资产价格的刺激措施可能会以家庭财务脆弱性的形式付出代价. If gains in stock prices are not followed by an improving labor market, households that over-extend themselves in terms of credit card spending or equity market exposure would face risks. 应该进行更多的研究，以充分了解信贷供应和流动资产如何影响家庭对市场波动的反应的广度和强度. 最后, 性别和投资者地位对股票反应的异质性表明，宏观金融联系可能随着时间的推移而改变, and rising inequality could narrow the segments of the population that respond directly to financial market changes.
